Scenario Definition
BAU (Business-as-usual)
Business-as-usual scenario: diesel price range is 4.19-4.41 USD/gal, adopting the method of Ou et al.; electricity is priced stably at 1.00 CNY/kWh; hydrogen prices decline linearly to 6.00 USD/kg by 2050; the accessibility of hydrogen refueling stations reaches parity with the current natural-gas station network by 2050; and the purchase subsidy is 10% in 2025, phasing out linearly to 0% by 2035.
Powertrain Technology
Market Dynamic
Diesel
Diesel Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Vehicle
Natural Gas
Natural Gas ICE Vehicle (LNG/CNG)
Battery Electric
Battery Electric Vehicle
Plug-in Hybrid Electric
Combines traditional fuel engine with rechargeable electric system
Hydrogen Fuel Cell
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
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Diesel
Natural Gas
Battery Electric
Plug-in Hybrid Electric
Hydrogen Fuel Cell