Sustainability Outlook for Commercial Vehicles (SOC-CN)

Heavy-duty Truck

GCW ≥ 12t

Heavy-duty trucks are classified as vehicles with a Gross Combination Weight (GCW) of 12 metric tons or greater. These vehicles are typically used for long-haul transportation and heavy cargo operations.

Medium-duty Truck

4.5t ≤ GCW < 12t

Medium-duty trucks have a Gross Combination Weight ranging from 4.5 to less than 12 metric tons. They are commonly used for regional distribution and mid-range cargo transportation.

Light-duty Truck

3.5t < GCW < 4.5t

Light-duty trucks are defined as vehicles with a Gross Combination Weight between 3.5 and 4.5 metric tons. These vehicles are typically used for urban delivery and light cargo transportation.

City Bus

City buses are public transportation vehicles designed for urban passenger transport. They operate on fixed routes within city limits and are not classified by GCW in the same manner as trucks.

Mini Truck

Mini trucks are included in the current SOC-CN BAU model.

Intercity Bus

Intercity buses are included in the current SOC-CN BAU model.

Regional Classification

The map above shows the original broad regional grouping. The current BAU selector provides national and province-level model outputs.

BAU (Business-as-usual)

BAU results from the selected SOC-CN model run. The charts show model outputs for market share, sales, stocks, energy demand and carbon emissions.

HDP (High Diesel Price)

The high diesel price range is 6.09-7.13 USD/gal, based on the EIA.

LDP (Low Diesel Price)

The low diesel price range is 2.82 to 3.07 USD/gal, based on the EIA.

HEP (High Electricity Price)

High electricity price scenario, with a constant price of 1.2 CNY/kWh.

LEP (Low Electricity Price)

Low electricity price scenario, with a constant price of 0.8 CNY/kWh.

HHP (High Hydrogen Price)

High hydrogen price scenario, where the hydrogen price remains at the current level through 2050.

LHP (Low Hydrogen Price)

Low hydrogen price scenario, where the hydrogen price declines linearly to 4.0 USD/kg by 2050.

HHA (High Hydrogen Accessibility)

High hydrogen station accessibility scenario, where accessibility reaches parity with diesel stations by 2050.

LHA-1 (Low Hydrogen Accessibility Level-1)

Low hydrogen station accessibility scenario (level-1), where accessibility improves to 1/2 BAU level by 2050.

LHA-2 (Low Hydrogen Accessibility Level-2)

Low hydrogen station accessibility scenario (level-2), where accessibility improves to 1/4 BAU level by 2050.

SHA (Stagnant Hydrogen Accessibility)

Stagnant hydrogen station accessibility scenario, where accessibility remains at the current level through 2050.

SSP (Slow Subsidy Phase-out)

Slow Subsidy Phase-out: The purchase subsidy will be gradually reduced from 10% in 2025 until it ends in 2040.

RSP (Rapid Subsidy Phase-out)

Rapid Subsidy Phase-out: The purchase subsidy will be gradually reduced from 10% in 2025 until it ends in 2030.