Sustainability Outlook for Commercial Vehicles (SOC-US)

Heavy-duty Vehicle (HDV)

GCW ≥ 12t

Heavy-duty vehicles are classified as vehicles with a Gross Combination Weight (GCW) of 12 metric tons or greater. These vehicles are typically used for long-haul transportation and heavy cargo operations.

Medium-duty Vehicle (MDV)

4.5t ≤ GCW < 12t

Medium-duty vehicles have a Gross Combination Weight ranging from 4.5 to less than 12 metric tons. They are commonly used for regional distribution and mid-range cargo transportation.

Regional Classification

The SOC-US model provides separate BAU results for 50 states and the District of Columbia.

BAU (Business-as-usual)

BAU results from the selected SOC-US model run. The charts show model outputs for market share, sales, stocks, energy demand and carbon emissions.

HDP (High Diesel Price)

The high diesel price range is 6.09-7.13 USD/gal, based on the EIA.

LDP (Low Diesel Price)

The low diesel price range is 2.82 to 3.07 USD/gal, based on the EIA.

HEP (High Electricity Price)

High electricity price scenario, with a constant price of 1.2 CNY/kWh.

LEP (Low Electricity Price)

Low electricity price scenario, with a constant price of 0.8 CNY/kWh.

HHP (High Hydrogen Price)

High hydrogen price scenario, where the hydrogen price remains at the current level through 2050.

LHP (Low Hydrogen Price)

Low hydrogen price scenario, where the hydrogen price declines linearly to 4.0 USD/kg by 2050.

HHA (High Hydrogen Accessibility)

High hydrogen station accessibility scenario, where accessibility reaches parity with diesel stations by 2050.

LHA-1 (Low Hydrogen Accessibility Level-1)

Low hydrogen station accessibility scenario (level-1), where accessibility improves to 1/2 BAU level by 2050.

LHA-2 (Low Hydrogen Accessibility Level-2)

Low hydrogen station accessibility scenario (level-2), where accessibility improves to 1/4 BAU level by 2050.

SHA (Stagnant Hydrogen Accessibility)

Stagnant hydrogen station accessibility scenario, where accessibility remains at the current level through 2050.

SSP (Slow Subsidy Phase-out)

Slow Subsidy Phase-out: The purchase subsidy will be gradually reduced from 10% in 2025 until it ends in 2040.

RSP (Rapid Subsidy Phase-out)

Rapid Subsidy Phase-out: The purchase subsidy will be gradually reduced from 10% in 2025 until it ends in 2030.